Boise State -6 vs. Oregon
Thursday, September 3rd. 10:15 p.m.
There’s a boatload of statistics, trends and arguments making me think that Boise State is the right side of this game.
First, Boise State is on a run of 21-5 ATS versus teams with potent offenses (categorized as 425+ yards per game). In these games, the Broncos have outscored opponents 42-29 on average.
Last year, these two teams met in Eugene, Ore., and Boise State won 37-32 straight up as a +10.5 underdog.
The Broncos are dominant at home, and play such a weak schedule that Vegas struggles to set their lines. It’s tough to handicap a good team in a weak conference. Boise State is 44-8 straight up at home over the last four years. During that time, they are 14-7 (67%) ATS at home — an impressive number for sure.
Boise State is 15-2 straight up and 15-2 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record, and Oregon is expecting to be a Top 25 team for the majority of the season. However, the Ducks were forced to figure out their offensive line situation in the spring, and things didn’t get any further resolved as two linemen (CE Kaiser and Bo Thran) who were slotted to start were injured until the early fall.
Boise State has set the bar high this season after going to Oregon last year and beating them on their own turf. Now, it’s Oregon that will travel to the Idaho state capitol in search of revenge from last season’s loss to the Broncos.
Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli has all but promised a victory and said it was embarrassing to lose to Boise State at home last year. Masoli was injured last year and didn’t have much of an impact in the Boise State game but he is ready to go this week and definitely voiced his feelings for all of the country to hear. I don’t know if that’s a good of an idea to add fuel to the Bronco’s already fired up squad especially on their own turf.
Ok, so this Thursday night is probably the biggest game in Boise State football history, and it will be the opening statement for another undefeated regular season for the Broncos. Bronco’s QB Kellen Moore burst onto the college scene last year as a true freshman and he never looked back. Moore has a year under his belt and is a winner in every aspect of the game- he competes and gives 110 percent on all plays. The big question will be the running game for Boise State as Ian Johnson has departed and left the duties to Jeremy Avery. Avery is a small but quick and powerful back who is expected to solidify the running game for the Broncos.
Moore will look to WR Titus Young as his go to receiver among others but it will be Young who should rise above the rest and help create the passing attack. Young is the fastest receiver in the WAC and it will interesting to see how he does against the traditionally quick Oregon defensive backs.
Oregon has been a dominant team in the last decade but they have come up short recently. The key to this season will be the health and consistent play of QB Jerimiah Masoli. Also, Oregon’s defense will be a major factor in their post season hopes.
For QB Masoli this game is more than revenge on a loss last season but it is also a personal quest perhaps after Masoli was “late-hit” which caused him to be injured against the Broncos last year. This game will be a brutal battle between two very good football programs. Oregon will need to figure out their wide receiver rotation quickly as they have struggled to pencil anyone in for certain. Head coach Chip Kelly has agreed that the Ducks are inexperienced in areas and receiving is a big one.
Oregon better figure out the receiving plan quickly as Boise State’s outstanding playmaker cornerback Kyle Wilson will certainly be patrolling the secondary waiting to create chaos for the Duck receiving crew.
The Ducks have that special ability to go into an opponent’s house and rattle their cage but can they do it to Boise State? Broncos Head Coach Chris Peterson is 34-5 on his own turf. Peterson has the knack to win games, especially big games at home. I don’t know if there is a team on the Bronco’s schedule that can beat them. Oregon may be the only obstacle for Boise State’s chance to go undefeated this season.
There is definitely something special going on in Boise and it’s not the famous potatoes, it’s the blue turf! This game should be a great opener to another year of college football.