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Week 2: Hills to Climb, Offenses to Gore
Published by Brandon Adams on September 19, 2009
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Which is better – to barely squeak out a win against last year’s conference champion in Week 1, or to shut out the league’s worst team?
The answer to this question tells us which team might have an edge Sunday as the San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks, with a 2-0 division lead on the line.
If you know the answer, by all means let me know. I’m a little stumped.
A lot of people are stumped by the 49ers right now, particularly by QB Shaun Hill. Hill won a tight competition in camp after failing last season to produce either prolific touchdowns (13 in eight starts) or a lot of turnovers. Hill didn’t win the starting job last year so much as J.T. O’Sullivan lost it (against the Seahawks), but with Hill starting and Mike Singletary as head coach, the 49ers finished well (5-3*) and never lost at home.
The 49ers’ defense, for its part, defied its label of inconsistency to show up big against Arizona last week. They won with their pass rush, hitting Kurt Warner repeatedly to limit that infamous Arizona passing attack. You know, the one that went to the Super Bowl. The one with Larry Fitzgerald and…um…all those other guys. Yeah.
Seattle vs. San Francisco is a matchup of two enigmas, both with talent that has lain dormant for years and now has a chance at being coached properly.
We need context for what we saw last week. Are the Cardinals long-suppressed champions who only just last year learned how to finish games? Or still chokers who just happened to heat up at the right time and took advantage of a certain division rival’s 4-12 record to squeak into the playoffs? Are the Rams truly awful on both sides of the ball, or can the Seahawks assume real responsibility for last week’s shutout?
OFFENSE
Arizona has their excuses for their offensive struggles against the 49ers. Right tackle Levi Brown had an off day. They’re still adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, one who showed little commitment to the run last week. They penalized themselves into oblivion. Anquan Boldin was hobbled and Steve Breaston was out entirely – you’d be surprised what losing a #3 receiver will do to an offense.
The Seahawks might be another story.
Neither our running game nor our offensive line got a particularly stiff test against St. Louis. The line was decent in pass protection but swung wildly between good execution and blown blocks in the running game. They got the job done, but the 49ers are a different animal. I expect Julius Jones to get somewhat bottled up, which puts the passing game back in the spotlight.
And that’s not a bad thing. Matt Hasselbeck is throwing to more pure talent at WR than we’ve had since Joey Galloway’s departure.
The San Francisco defense confused Kurt Warner last week with well-disguised coverages and pre-snap motion. Hasselbeck is a heady player who’s harder to confuse; he’s a master of audibles at the line and can read and adapt quickly, as he did against the Rams’ corner blitzes. Those corners were leaving Nate Burleson open when they rushed, so Hasselbeck simply started throwing to him.
Of course, there’s still the 49ers’s solid pass rush to contend with. They got to Warner while rushing only four. That fourth player was a linebacker who frequently blitzed from different places, leaving seven defenders available to drop back into coverage. That sort of unpredictability and flexibility is a trademark of the 3-4 defense.
Beating that coverage will be Hasselbeck’s biggest test. He’s a surgical passer who thrives on short and intermediate throws. Look for San Francisco to try to shut down the middle of the field, because that shuts down WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh and TE John Carlson – two targets who excel at massaging the middle and getting open, and whom Hasselbeck trusts. We saw what happened last week when he tried to force the ball into double coverage – an interception and at least two shoulda-beens.
Even so, Carlson posted 6 catches for 78 yards against the same 49ers players last year – without significant playing time with Hasselbeck, and only the likes of Billy McMullen and Courtney Taylor to draw attention away from him.
Should the middle stay well-covered, the 49ers might leave the outside to one-on-one coverage. Burleson is a playmaker, if not entirely trustworthy with the ball in his hands. We haven’t seen much of what Deon Butler can do yet (except for this, of course), but we’re looking forward to the revelation. The 49ers’ corners are good but not consistently so, and could be prone to getting burnt deep.
Should Hasselbeck lose the field entirely, he can turn to his running backs or the screen game for some relief, which is how the Cardinals adapted last week. Our backs are good receivers, and we ran some successful screens in the preseason. Generally, however, such a move will not result in enough yardage to carry an offense; it’s meant more to open holes downfield. Eventually, the 49ers’ coverage will have to break.
If you’re starting to feel like it all comes down to Hasselbeck, you’re probably right. Hasselbeck ran the offense at a fast tempo last week and the Rams couldn’t keep up. If he can stay upright and keep his poise in the face of pressure, find seams in the defense and mentally defeat them, and above all avoid interceptions – the real game-killer – then I say the Seahawks have the momentum.
DEFENSE
Hasselbeck isn’t the only quarterback on the hot seat here. The Seahawks defense brought strong pressure against Marc Bulger last week and should do the same against Shaun Hill and his mediocre line.
Hill is a tough, competitive, and quietly reliable quarterback. He’s workmanlike, and that’s probably all that he’ll ever be – though if he is going to break out, he’d better not wait too long. The last promising 49ers QB to do that had his career derailed by Rocky Bernard.
Not all of Hill’s throws are on the money, and he doesn’t score a lot, but neither does he take a lot of stupid risks. He’s got the poise and gamesmanship to stand out above other unremarkable passers and form the basis of a respectable, if unspectacular, offense.
How well Hill responds depends to a large degree on the 49ers’ play-calling, which was frustratingly ineffective last week. San Francisco couldn’t spring RB Frank Gore and couldn’t sustain drives. They came alive when it mattered, though, passing on 14 out of 16 plays during their final scoring drive and showing improvement at picking up the blitz. Watch for the 49ers to carry these lessons over to Week 2; they might very well come out shooting.
This is a problem. I’m not sure our secondary has the ability to jam receivers at the line or the solid tackling to cut off yards after the catch. Hill was 1-7 passing deep last week, but don’t underestimate Hill’s receivers. Isaac Bruce did not stop burning us when he left the Rams. Arnez Battle and TE Vernon Davis have given us problems in the past. Josh Morgan is showing potential.
Besides, how many supposedly weapon-less teams embarrassed us last year? Brent Celek, anyone? Thank God Michael Crabtree is holding out. (And that he didn’t sign with Seattle.)
Without Marcus Trufant, this secondary is playing uphill. Ken Lucas was signed to rescue us from soft, un-physical play, but he has struggled since 2007 and did so again in the preseason. Jordan Babineaux is an upgrade at safety over the departed Brian Russell, but still unproven. Everyone else on this unit is either too old or too small to depend the pass aggressively; my admiration of Josh Wilson aside, the guy still just gets beat too often. His matchup against the 5′11″ Donnie Avery last week was ideal. He might fare well defending the slot against Jason Hill or Micheal Spurlock this week, but that depends if they play him there.
If the secondary doesn’t step up, the Seahawks will have to win with their front seven (which may be without DT Brandon Mebane – shudder). They played with attitude last week and should be able to at least disrupt Hill’s timing, force bad throws and the frequent checkdowns to closer wideouts that Hill is prone to. Frank Gore might not be much of a factor; he’s lost a gear in recent years, and as the Seahawks have shown, he’s not known for his ball security.
The loss of LB Leroy Hill doesn’t help. It reduces our pass rush, weakens our tackling, and makes our defense more vulnerable to the screen pass. His replacement, Will Herring, doesn’t tackle or disrupt as well as Leroy, but he has improved. Most importantly, he’s a much better cover man (being a converted safety) with good range and reflexes. He could especially be an asset against passing offenses like Indy and Arizona. In a sense, we’re trading one skill set for another at the outside linebacker position.
One thing I’m excited about: Aaron Curry was touted during the draft season as the perfect guy to cover big, physical tight ends like Vernon Davis. That’ll be a terrific matchup to watch, if Seattle goes for it.
CONCLUSION
Expect a low-scoring game with plenty of defense, one that comes down to turnovers and the offensive opportunities that they create. Especially crucial are the first couple of drives; sloppiness and early turnovers on Seattle’s part will play right into the 49ers’ ability to clamp down with defense. A strong, bold start by Hasselbeck will force the 49ers to play catchup and thus put the burden on their weaker unit.
Seattle expressed the desire to be just such a team last week when Hasselbeck stepped onto the field and immediately started throwing deep. I doubt the ‘Hawks will survive the kind of early mistake that followed, though; aggressiveness must go hand in hand with good decision-making. The Seahawks have the talent to win. If you’re like me, believing that quarterback is the most important position on a football team, then this matchup is probably quite clear to you.
Here’s hoping that Seattle continues its well-established tradition of being bad for the careers of San Francisco quarterbacks.
* The 49ers’ 5-3 finish saw them beat only offenses rated 16th or worse last season. Those in the upper 16 all defeated the 49ers.
© 2009, Seahawks 12th Man Army. All rights reserved.
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