Seattle Seahawks’ Feeling a draft

Published on December 29, 2010 by     T.C.

The Seahawks could “cost” themselves about 10 spots in the draft by winning Sunday’s regular-season finale, which would put Seattle in the playoffs but also mean it could choose no better than No. 21 overall in the first round. Right now, only 10 teams have a worse record than the Seahawks.

But the whole idea of “costing” yourself draft position is a peculiar notion. After all, playing in the Super Bowl “costs” you draft position, but no one with the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals was complaining about holding the second-to-last choice of the first round after playing in the Super Bowl.

Sunday’s game isn’t an accounting exercise to determine whether this season will be written down as 4-12 or 5-11 in the team yearbook. It’s for a playoff berth.

But still, is there something to this idea that a team is better off in the long run getting better draft position, presumably getting to choose better players. Does it pay dividends down the road?

I spent entirely too much time looking at that today after tracking down — through the league — the original draft order from the previous 10 seasons. Why 10? Well, that’s what the league had available.

We don’t include how the teams that held picks in the 2010 draft fare because the season isn’t over. The sample size is too small to draw sweeping conclusions, but it is interesting to look at how the teams that held the No. 21 draft choice originally fared in the subsequent season vs. those that held the No. 11, No. 12, No. 13 and No. 14 picks.

Wins that year Wins next year
Team drafted No. 21 9.4 9.9
Team drafted No. 11 6.6 8.3
Team drafted No. 12 6.9 7.8
Team drafted No. 13 7.2 6.1
Team drafted No. 14 7.5 7.8

Now, those averages are based on the team that originally held the pick, which is to say owned that pick strictly based on finish and not reflective of trades that were made previous to that season or subsequently. So it’s not who used the pick, but who originally owned the pick.

And I can’t say I’m terribly surprised to see that the teams that drafted No. 21 fared significantly better in the following year — on average — than those teams that picked earlier in the first round.

But that’s also a pretty narrow margin to evaluate upon, isn’t it? I mean, we’re not talking about a one or two-year window here with Pete Carroll in Seattle. We’re talking about a multi-year administration here, and besides, it takes more than one year to evaluate the returns on a draft choice. It should take three, right? So let’s broaden the time frame and look at how those same teams fared in the second and third years after the draft.

Wins that year Wins next year 2 years later 3 years later
Team drafted No. 21 9.4 9.9 7.9 8.6
Team drafted No. 11 6.6 8.3 7.9 9.6
Team drafted No. 12 6.9 7.8 6.4 7.8
Team drafted No. 13 7.2 6.1 6.4 7.4
Team drafted No. 14 7.5 7.8 9.2 7.6

The results aren’t entirely shocking. Those teams that had better first-round picks tended to show an upward trend two and three years later while those teams that chose No. 21 on average performed worse two years after holding that pick.

And taken on a broader scale, those teams that held the No. 11 pick in the draft averaged 8.6 wins over the three years that followed that selection. What did those teams that held the No. 21 pick average in the three years following the selection: 8.6.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fair Use Notice This website may at times present copyrighted material, the use of which might not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available in an effort to advance understandings of democratic, economic, environmental, human rights, political, scientific, and social justice issues, among others. The author believes that this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U. S. Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the articles published on this website are distributed without profit for research and informational purposes. In most instances a link is placed to originator of Article and it is never expressly mentioned as written by, we use published by certain entities who write or publish for this said Blog..

Tell Us What's On Your Mind (0)




WP-SpamFree by Pole Position Marketing

REMEMBERING A LEGEND!

LATEST SEAHAWKS NEWS

10Szvx.AuSt.5

Pete Carroll’s relationship with Seahawks owner Paul Allen “really couldn’t be better”

Pete Carroll apparently doesn’t have the same “recessive gene” Jim Harbaugh has. You may have heard about 49ers chief ...
123456

Seahawks’ defense more dominant the last two games than it was last season

Suddenly, the Seattle Seahawks have gone from meandering to monstrous again. So what’s changed? How has a defense that ...
141128lynch600

Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson have Seahawks’ offense running in the right direction

On a night when the Seahawks’ defense was the big story in a 19-3 victory over the San ...
141124wagner660

Bobby Wagner goes from not playing for five games to playing all but one play vs Cardinals

After missing five games with a toe injury, Bobby Wagner was back at middle linebacker for Sunday’s win ...
141125-nfcwest-660

Know Your Enemy: NFC West Update on 49ers, Rams, Cardinals

Seattle's Week 12 win over the Arizona Cardinals should make for a more interesting stretch-run in the hyper-competitive ...
141124mmm660

Russell Wilson’s impromptu plays paved way for important victory

This one, as it turned, also was on Russell Wilson. After a week in which the Seahawks’ third-year quarterback ...
141123wagner660a

Seahawks cut Cardinals’ lead in NFC West to two games

In a game they had to have, the Seahawks regained their swagger and recaptured their dominating ways in ...
140904glance660

Seahawks play like the champs, roll Packers, 36-16

So this is what defending a Super Bowl championship looks like. Actually, it looked plenty like how the Seahawks ...

Shop for 2014 Seahawks Gameday Gear at NFLShop.com

Shop for 2014 Seahawks Gameday Gear at NFLShop.com

lat-noise-wre0011368363-20130915

WELCOME TO THE SEAHAWKS 12TH MAN ARMY.

WE TAKE PRIDE IN GIVING SEAHAWKS FANS AROUND THE CLOCK UPDATES,  ALL SEAHAWKS ALL THE TIME. SO IF YOU WANT THE LATEST SEAHAWKS NEWS DELIVERED FOR FREE RIGHT TO YOUR EMAIL BOX ONCE A WEEK, SIGN UP AND ENJOY!

WE HAVE BEEN PROUDLY SERVING DIEHARD SEAHAWKS FANS SINCE 2004.

Enter your Email

Preview | Powered by FeedBlitz